The University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, in collaboration with the University of Toronto, Toronto St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto Disease Surveillance Center and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, has identified cities and countries at high risk of the spread of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) through big data analysis The ranking list (Potential global spread of new coronavirus. Science Daily, 29 January 2020).
Based on mobile phone and IP address mobile data, and international air travel data, the researchers established a model of the movement of people in China and around the world. They identified 18 high-risk cities for the new coronavirus in China (including Wuhan), and determined the number of air passengers from these cities to global destinations (within three months), especially the flow data before the “closing of the city” in Wuhan . Based on this, the 30 countries and cities with the highest global risks are ranked.
Cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing, as well as provinces such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan are designated as high-risk areas in China. Bangkok is the city facing the greatest risk of global spread of the virus, with Hong Kong ranking second and Taipei third. Sydney (12), New York (16) and London (19), no city in Canada entered the top 30. The “highest risk” countries or regions in the world are Thailand (1), Japan (2) and Hong Kong (3). The United States is sixth, Australia is tenth, and Canada is sixteenth.
This new coronavirus epidemic is characterized by Wuhan as the center, so the mobile big data of the Wuhan population is of great significance for predicting the development direction of the epidemic. The “first” new coronavirus patient in China with no history of contact with Wuhan was discovered through big data that he actually had contact with at least three Wuhan patients. Therefore, reducing contact with carriers of the new coronavirus will greatly reduce the risk of infection.
There are two illusions to be thrown away about the new coronavirus. One is looking forward to “special effects” and the other is looking forward to vaccines. Viruses are just a small fragment of nucleic acid-protein conjugates that carry genetic information. They are not “alive” in the first place, so they will not “dead”. At present, they are still “no cure.” Vaccines are an effective way to prevent the new coronavirus, but the development process of vaccines is at least a few months, and the safety and efficacy of the three phases of clinical trials are still required. It is already fast in clinical application within a year, but the activity of the virus is generally reduced to a harmless level within a few months.
The virus is first transmitted directly through droplets. Virus droplets can cling to dust particles in the air, or stay on clothes or door handles to remain infectious for several hours. Most people now wear masks to prevent direct droplet transmission, but no one wears hats and gloves to prevent virus-contaminated dust or doorknobs and other sources of infection. This is a big loophole. Masks, hats and gloves, washing hands and face with soapy water, and putting clothes exposed to the air into plastic bags can greatly reduce the risk of infection.
